2021 Oscar Predictions
After the longest Oscars season of my lifetime, and the strangest year for film as well, the 2021 Oscars are finally upon us, which means it’s time for me to dust off this Medium account for my annual predictions.
My format the past few seasons has been fun, so I’m sticking with it, predicting my picks for what I believe will win this evening, as well as what should win were I voting for the nominees. I’m once again in a unique position of having seen literally every single film in every single category, and for the first time ever, I did so almost entirely at home (usually I see from about a fourth to a third of the films at home; this year I only saw three of the 50+ releases in theaters, mere weeks before the pandemic upended film and life and we knew it).
Beyond just the Oscar contenders, I managed to see more than dozens of additional new films released in 2020- with a handful of prominent releases still high on my watchlist to go- and I believe many, many excellent and deserving works were passed over or not adequately discussed this awards season, especially by the Academy. In the spirit of looking beyond just this limited slate of nominees, I’m once again also including my picks for “obvious snub” (the films/people I think most clearly deserved a nod, or should have been next in line) and “less obvious snub” (other performances/films I would love to have seen nominated, despite some perhaps being bigger long-shots).
This year feels a little more predictable than most, at least in the major categories, no doubt due to the extremely unusual, touch-and-go nature of distribution these past many months, with theaters largely absent. But, of course, that probably means there will be some weird and inexplicable surprises. Follow me on Twitter for some live commentary throughout this evening’s show, follow my Letterboxd profile for movie updates year-round, and check out my full 2021 Oscars predictions below!
Best Picture:
Will win: “Nomadland”
Should win: “Nomadland” (like “Parasite” last year, “Nomadland” feels so special and suited to this moment, and though I didn’t trust the Academy to do the right thing last time around, and was pleasantly surprised when they did, “Nomadland” goes in with all of the hype and momentum it deserves, making it both the favorite to win, and the most deserving film of the bunch)
Obvious snub: To be honest, I’m shocked that “One Night in Miami” and “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” didn’t round out the two unused slots here, especially since the Academy was quick to recognize their performances in other categories (had those two not been inexplicably excluded, Spike Lee’s “Da 5 Bloods” would’ve been my pick here, and had it not been deemed as television, rather than the film that it is, Steve McQueen’s “Lovers Rock” had the widespread critical appeal to be a contender as well)
Less obvious snub: The most frequently cited and highly ranked film of critics’ best of 2020 lists was Kelly Reichardt’s criminally under-seen “First Cow,” so it’s a bit of head-scratcher to see it attract little awards season attention (a more populist pick would be Pixar’s masterful “Soul,” which is undeniably better than some of these nominees)
Lead Actor:
Will win: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Should win: Chadwick Boseman, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (were I an Academy voter, this category would likely be the toughest of all, as I believe Anthony Hopkins’ stunning work in “The Father” is his career-best, and might actually be the year’s best performance; however, honoring the immense talent of Boseman and a career cut tragically short by honoring his equally impressive turn here feels more right, even if, under less mournful circumstances, my vote might be tipped the other way)
Obvious snub: One of the most egregious, head-scratching snubs of the whole show is the absence of Delroy Lindo here for “Da 5 Bloods” (especially after winning Best Actor at multiple critics awards)
Less obvious snub: Jude Law, “The Nest” (Sean Durkin’s “The Nest,” anchored by a great and understated Law performance, is way too good to be so overlooked this year, and would’ve been a much stronger Oscar contender in a different era; I’ll chalk this one up to being another victim of slipping through the Covid release cracks)
Lead Actress:
Will win: Viola Davis, “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Should win: Frances McDormand, “Nomadland” (this is a STACKED category, and honestly feels like a virtual three-way tie between Davis, McDormand, and Carey Mulligan for “Promising Young Woman,” both in deservedness and likelihood of winning; what McDormand did in “Nomadland” though, in such a naturalistic and subtle performance, is the foundation that made the movie work so fundamentally and stuck with me in the most impactful way)
Obvious snub: Yeri Han is every bit as deserving of nomination as her male co-lead Steven Yeun for her excellent work in “Minari” (and had the film had any traction whatsoever, Carrie Coon’s work in “The Nest” is even more impressive than Law’s, and would’ve felt like a shoe-in)
Less obvious snub: Sidney Flanigan, “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” (Eliza Hittman’s “Never Rarely Sometimes Always” is the year’s biggest disconnect between critical acclaim and awards recognition after “First Cow,” and at its core is a vulnerable and understated lead performance from newcomer Flanigan; an even less obvious but impressive performance in its wild commitment is Evan Rachel Wood in Miranda July’s delightfully weird “Kajillionaire”)
Supporting Actor:
Will win: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah”
Should win: Daniel Kaluuya, “Judas and the Black Messiah” (I maintain that both Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield can’t both be supporting actors in their own movie, but if we get past the fact that Daniel is really a lead actor snuck in here, I believe he’s the best of the bunch; were he absent I’d flip to Paul Raci for “Sound of Metal”)
Obvious snub: Kingsley Ben-Adir “One Night in Miami” (I’m not sure how Leslie Odom Jr. became the designated nominee everywhere for “One Night in Miami,” but I believe that Kingsley Ben-Adir’s portrayal of Malcom X is every bit as good, if not better; alternately, Bill Murray would’ve felt like a shoe-in if Sofia Coppola’s “On the Rocks” was just a tad more resonant)
Less obvious snub: Alan Kim, “Minari” (it’s not a super obscure pick, as he’s been nominated at smaller awards, but child actor Alan Kim really steals the show in “Minari”)
Supporting Actress:
Will win: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari”
Should win: Yuh-Jung Youn, “Minari” (though Amanda Seyfried’s work in “Mank” was excellent as well, as was Olivia Coleman in “The Father;” I just really hope Glen Close’s first Oscar doesn’t come from something as downright bad as “Hillbilly Elegy”)
Obvious snub: Jodie Foster, “The Mauritanian” (I’ll admit that I haven’t actually gotten around to watching “The Mauritanian” yet, and my understanding is that Foster is technically more of a lead so it would be like the Kaluuya situation, but after winning Best Supporting Actress at the Golden Globes, I expected at least a nod here)
Less obvious snub: Cristin Milioti, “Palm Springs” (“Palm Springs” is one of the most charming and watchable movies of 2020, and though a little lighter than typical awards films, I feel like Milioti’s performance is its most elevated strength)
Director:
Will win: Chloe Zhao, “Nomadland”
Should win: David Fincher, “Mank” (I will be beyond thrilled when Chloe inevitably bags this historic win for the masterpiece that is “Nomadland,” as I fully expect her to, and I think she’s absolutely brilliant and deserving, so I’m a little hesitant to even bother making a case for the old white dude here, but I was just so blown away by how well Fincher executed his precise vision with “Mank,” and in my heart, it seems like the best direction of this stacked bunch, where any one of these wins would feel satisfying)
Obvious snub: Spike Lee, “Da 5 Bloods” (Not as transcendent as “BlacKkKlansman” a couple years ago, I concede, but another really impressive late career effort from Spike; Regina King’s impressive directorial debut with “One Night in Miami” also feels like a huge oversight)
Less obvious snub: Autumn de Wilde, “Emma” (I maintain that “Emma” fell victim to Covid timing, as it dropped in theaters right before everything shut down, and seemed to fizzle out of the conversation; were it a fall release on a prominent streamer, I feel like de Wilde’s under-seen, visually stunning Jane Austen adaptation would be getting more awards traction)
Animated Feature:
Will win: “Soul”
Should win: “Soul” (“Wolfwalkers” is criminally underrated, but “Soul” is all but guaranteed, and should’ve ended up as a Best Picture contender to boot)
Obvious snub: “The Croods: A New Age” (I’ve never seen a Croods movie, but in a year of few animated releases, it’s the other major title that had a shot; the five nominees that made it in feel right to me though)
Less obvious snub: “The Willoughbys” (this has been sitting in my Netflix queue for a full year, and with an impressive voice cast and good reviews, it perhaps could’ve had a shot had it generated more buzz)
Animated Short:
Will win: “If Anything Happens I Love You”
Should win: “Opera” (“If Anything Happens…” is certainly more emotionally resonant, but “Opera” is a truly unique masterpiece of the form)
Snub: I seem to be in the minority, but of Disney’s two contenders here, I thought “Out” was superior to the nominated “Burrow”
Adapted Screenplay:
Will win: “Nomadland” Chloe Zhao
Should win: “The Father,” Florian Zeller and Christopher Hampton (I think “The Father,” a stunning adaptation of a Zeller’s stage play for screen, could actually win here, but I’m anticipating a “Nomadland” sweep a la “Parasite,” and wouldn’t be mad about either outcome)
Obvious snub: “First Cow” from author Jonathan Raymond and director Kelly Reichardt (again, a potentially more serious Oscar contender in a different year) or Eleanor Catton’s great Jane Austen update in “Emma” both could’ve easily found a place among these nominees since they were left out in the rest of the major categories
Less obvious snub: “I’m Thinking of Ending Things,” Charlie Kaufman (it didn’t exactly have a breakout moment, but if Kaufman’s surrealist work might find a spot anywhere, it’s here for Screenplay, where the Oscars occasionally take more risks)
Original Screenplay:
Will win: “Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell
Should win: “Promising Young Woman,” Emerald Fennell (I like this film a lot, but I don’t think in an ordinary year it would be present in so many categories; still, I think the screenplay is fresh and exciting enough to edge out my second choice, “Minari”)
Obvious snub: “On the Rocks” from Sofia Coppola would be an obvious contender in a less competitive year (and since Screenplay is a category with room for more adventurous picks, I think Andy Siara’s work on “Palm Springs” could’ve easily made the cut as well)
Less obvious snub: “Never Rarely Sometimes Always,” Eliza Hittman (again, I’m shocked to see so little awards love for this critically adored indie work)
Cinematography:
Will win: “Nomadland”
Should win: “Nomadland” (though I’m tempted to say “Mank,” so much of what makes “Nomadland” so special and effective is the wandering expanse of space captured by Joshua James Richards’ cinematography)
Obvious snub: “Tenet” (you know it’s a weird year when a Christopher Nolan film shot by Hoyte van Hoytema gets iced out completely)
Less obvious snub: “Lovers Rock” (again, it’s maddening that Steve McQueen’s series of brilliant and distinctive films, released in anthology form as “Small Axe,” were deemed television for awards season, but had it been under consideration, the gorgeous “Lovers Rock” camerawork by Shabier Kirchner should absolutely have been recognized here)
Best Documentary Feature:
Will win: “My Octopus Teacher”
Should win: “Time” (“My Octopus Teacher” might be the weakest of the bunch, but its hype seems unstoppable; “Time” and “Collective” are neck and neck as the superior pick for me)
Obvious snub: “Dick Johnson Is Dead” (it’s really a head-scratcher that a film as good and as widely-discussed as “Dick Johnson Is Dead” managed to be left out here)
Less obvious snub: “Boys State” (I wonder if being on AppleTV+ hurt its chances here, because the timely and addictive “Boys State” is also vastly better than at least a couple of these nominees)
Best Documentary Short Subject:
Will win: “A Love Song for Latasha”
Should win: “A Love Song for Latasha” (I perhaps enjoyed some of the others a bit more, but the vérité documentary style of “Latasha” sets it apart)
Snub: “The Speed Cubers” (I wouldn’t peg it to win, but would recommend everyone watch this fascinating and pleasant little Netflix doc)
Best Live Action Short Film:
Will win: “Two Distant Strangers”
Should win: “Two Distant Strangers” (though I won’t complain if other strong contender “The Letter Room” takes this)
Snub: Pedro Almodóvar’s Tilda Swinton-led “The Human Voice” not only should’ve been nominated, but it should have been the clear frontrunner to win here, hands down
Best International Feature Film:
Will win: “Another Round,” Denmark
Should win: “Another Round,” Denmark (I was pleasantly surprised to see director Thomas Vinterberg land a Best Director nod for this one, and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t bring home the prize here)
Obvious snub: Brazil’s “Bacurau” somehow didn’t even land on the Academy’s shortlist (and perhaps it’s just too out-there for voters), but as one of the most critically-lauded foreign films of last year, it’s surprising to me that it wasn’t a more serious contendor
Less obvious snub: “La Llorona,” Guatemala (not to be confused with the mediocre “Conjuring” spinoff “The Curse of La Llorona,” Guatemalan horror film “La Llorona” had just enough inventiveness and critical appeal to bring it into the conversation here)
Film Editing:
Will win: “The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Should win: “The Father” (I get the sense that many Academy voters equate good editing with lots of cuts, which is why I think they’ll go with “Chicago 7,” despite its arguably poor editing, over fellow frontrunner “Sound of Metal;” the subtlety of the editing in “The Father” and its deliberate disorientation is low-key the best of the bunch through)
Obvious snub: “Tenet” (once again, a tightly-constructed Christopher Nolan film, handled by talented editor Jennifer Lame, seems like a strange omission)
Less obvious snub: “The Invisible Man” (Leigh Whannell’s take on “The Invisible Man” could’ve shown up in a number of a categories, but its editing by Andy Canny is arguably the film’s most important facet in building tension and creating suspense from absence)
Sound:
Will win: “Sound of Metal”
Should win: “Sound of Metal” (it’s the first year of a combined sound category, but I’ll be shocked if there’s any kind of upset for this one)
Obvious snub: “Tenet” (once again, a complex, action set-piece and battle filled Christopher Nolan film is absent from a category that would’ve been a shoe-in in a normal year)
Less obvious snub: “The Vast of Night” (perhaps too small and subtle a film to be a real contender here, despite being one of 2020’s best hidden gems, its use of sound is nonetheless integral to the entire film’s plot and momentum)
Production Design:
Will win: “Mank”
Should win: “Mank” (it’ll be weird if this is the only trophy that “Mank,” the night’s most nominated film, takes home, but if nothing else, its production design is absolutely next-level)
Obvious snub: “Emma” (I mean, C’MON; I know it nabbed Costume and Makeup nods, but the production design for “Emma” was stunning and usually the type of thing the Oscars love)
Less obvious snub: “Birds of Prey” (perhaps the Academy didn’t appreciate the neon-soaked, bright reimagining of the DCEU’s Gotham in Cathy Yan’s “Birds of Prey” quite as much as me, but the visual aesthetic of this film is really stellar)
Original Score:
Will win: “Soul”
Should win: “Soul” (Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross really flexed on us by also knocking out an excellent score for “Mank,” but their work on “Soul,” assisted by Jon Batiste, is truly something extra special)
Obvious snub: “Tenet” (Ludwig Göransson is one of the hottest young composers working today, but even his first time team-up with Christopher Nolan couldn’t help the film gain more traction)
Less obvious snub: “The Midnight Sky” (I didn’t find anything about “The Midnight Sky” particularly memorable, but Alexandre Desplat is such an awards darling, that his involvement alone at least made this one a dark horse)
Original Song:
Will win: “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami”
Should win: “Speak Now” from “One Night in Miami” is probably the best of the pretty unexciting bunch (but I’m skeptical that this category should even exist, as it rarely seems to honor songs that have any real bearing on the function of the films themselves, and are often glorified credits music)
Snub: “Face the Music” from “Bill & Ted Face the Music” (because it’s more consequential to the film than anything else nominated, save for “Eurovision”)
Makeup and Hair:
Will win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Should win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom” (though I’m a sucker for the elaborate period makeup and hair in “Emma” as well)
Obvious snub: “Birds of Prey” (Harley Quinn’s makeup and hair are what bring Margot Robbie’s iconic take on the character to life, and the impressive work in this film extends to a whole rogues gallery of heroes and villains)
Less obvious snub: “The United States vs. Billie Holiday” (I admittedly didn’t love this film, but I feel like Andra Day’s visual transformation into Billie Holiday nearly rivals Viola Davis’s into Ma Rainey)
Costume Design:
Will win: “Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”
Should win: “Emma” (“Ma Rainey” and “Mank” both sit high on my list, but I’m a sucker for the colorful, period-accurate costuming of “Emma”)
Obvious snub: “Birds of Prey” (it’s not unprecedented for superhero films to get a nod here, and “Birds of Prey” managed to give its female superhero cast a distinctive and cool look apart from the male gaze of efforts from the likes of Zack Synder and Joss Whedon)
Less obvious snub: “Ammonite” (a would-be Oscar contender on paper, but just an ok period drama in practice; and if I were awarding it for the costume of a singular character, none sticks in my mind as prominently as Evan Rachel Wood’s Old Dolio from “Kajillionaire”)
Visual Effects:
Will win: “Tenet”
Should win: “Tenet” (in a year largely absent effects-heavy blockbusters, “Tenet” sort of feels like the frontrunner by default; had the cutoff been a bit later, we might seriously be discussing “Godzilla vs. Kong” here)
Obvious snub: “Wonder Woman 1984” (the only other effects-heavy, high-dollar production to rival “Tenet,” the somewhat underwhelming but visually impressive “Wonder Woman 1984” managed to get left out of every single technical category, despite being eligible)
Less obvious snub: “The Invisible Man” (much of this film’s tension is created by what’s not there, but when the seams start to show, the effects for bringing invisibility into the 21st century are impressively executed)
